Over at TPM, the headline characterizes Pelosi's statement as meaning that she is walking away: “Pelosi: There Aren't Enough Votes To Pass The Senate Bill.”
If Pelosi walks away, then reform is dead.
But as I read her statement, she’s saying several contradictory things at once. Cognitive dissonance. (And if I were Pelosi, that’s exactly how I would feel.) It’s as if we are looking into her mind: stream of consciousness.
But I hear hope in her words.
Over at TNR, Jon Chait is even more hopeful than I am: “This doesn't sound like walking away to me. It sounds like she or some of her members are holding out for an agreement to amend the bill through reconciliation. The good news is that this actually makes the negotiations easier in some ways. The negotiation with the Senate before required the assent Senators like Ben Nelson and Joe Lieberman. Now it only requires the assent of the 50th Senator, who's probably far more willing to back a tax on the rich, beef up low-income subsidies, and do other things the House demands.
“The complicating factor is that this reopens negotiations that were previously all but settled, and may cause the House to increase its demands. That would be foolish — they should take something approximating the deal that's been on the table, pass it, and walk away.
“If the Democrats were all rational people this would have a 100% chance of happening. Since they're not, I'll call it 60%.”
I would add that the reconciliation process is limited to issues with a budgetary impact. It could happen. The Cadillac Tax would be gone (good riddance) and Nelson would lose the special deal for Nebraska (at this point probably even Nelson regrets cutting that deal.)
Reform seems dead now that the Republicans have a decent number of senators. I hope the Democrats don’t give up so easily, but the right seems determined to kill off any chance at reform.
Robert, the Republicans have exactly one more senator, and the Democrats have one less. That is not a big change, even with the need for 60 votes in the Senate. Democrats have never had 60 votes in the Senate for any bill of importance, and they still don’t.
It is best that the House simply pass the Senate bill, and immediately start work of budget reconciliation bills that can be passed with the 55 or so Democratic votes in the Senate. The Cadilac tax can be cut or eliminated, the Bush tax cuts can be allowed to expire, and Health Care insurance reform is still “budget neutral”. The start dates can be moved up, and the expiring Bush tax cuts can keep even that budget neutral.
As much as ever could be done, can still be done, if only the Democatic Party would get up off the floor and stop moaning.
“This doesn’t sound like walking away to me. It sounds like she or some of her members are holding out for an agreement to amend the bill through reconciliation.
I think this is what’s happening on the Progressive side but if she doesn’t have the votes from the other holdouts, then there is serious trouble. People learned their lesson from watching Snowe, Landrieu, Nelson, Stupak and Lieberman – hold the thing hostage and you’ll get somewhere.
If you are in despair over all this, here is something you can do:
E-mail your congressman and tell him or her that they should vote for the House to adopt the Senate bill unchanged.
The future of health care reform is in the hands, for now, of liberal Democrats in the House more than anyone else.
They can pass the Senate plan and figure that sometime in the years before it takes effect (2014) that they can use reconciliation to fix some of the things they don’t like. Or they can take their football and go home.
If they do the second, they will be saying that Democrats, with a very large House majority and a filibuster proof Senate majority, have been unable to pass the program — universal health care — that has been the signature Democratic issue since 1948. And that health care will have to wait at least another ten years.
My personal take is that the MA election was not about health care. If it was about any issues, it was about the economy. However, Coakley was in the lead in polls by 20 points on January 1st, and the economy and health care have not changed since then, at least not in ways detectable by people who are not esoteric specialists. What did change is that Coakley insulted Red Sox fans, said that she didn’t like to shake hands with voters if it meant she had to go out in the cold, came across as a bit out of it in a couple of debates, and so on. Voters also got to see that Brown was good looking, fairly articulate, and a general all-American boy, and didn’t get much time to figure out what he really stood for.
What we are facing now is the question of whether progressives think that health care reform should be flushed down the toilet if it does not meet ideal characteristics.
I have a lot of friends who are progressives, and I know they are perfectly capable of making that sort of decision — some of them even voted for Nader in 2000. I just hope they won’t this time.
This is what they call down and dirty: fourth and one on the one yard line. Ten million e-mails by Monday might make the difference.
The Brown win is a defeat for the Statists. Now, Back to the Drawing Board.
I don’t understand any of these comments. The same people who voted for Obama in MA voted for Brown because they didn’t like the direction of health care reform. They didn’t like the back-room deals and didn’t like the lack of transparency, which was a campaign promise made over and over. I am the first to admit that we need some reform, especially to cover the medically uninsured and those who cannot afford health insurance. I just don’t think we need to throw out the current system. And, I don’t think they have the votes for reconciliation. The upset in MA has weakened what little backbone is left in the Democrats. They’ve had a year to do something with a majority and couldn’t get it done. Pretty pathetic.
hoppycalif, Henry
Good to hear from you.
I agree totally. I am disappointed that Obama seemed to disappear after the election.
But at least Pelosi stepped forward.
And this week-end apparently she and REid are working on separate legisaltion that would maek the Senate bill more palatable to House liberals.
Pelosi and Reid seemt to understand that they must move.
Henry–
In a little while, I’ll e posting polling data that shows that the people who voted for Brown were Not sending a message about health reform.
The truth is that most voters don’t even known what is in the reform legislation.
And the folks who elected Brown in Mass (working-class voters) are moer concerned about jobs and the economy. These are their immediate problems.
Reform that they don’t particuarly understand, and that would happen 4 years from now, is not the pressing issue.
hoppycalif, Henry
Good to hear from you.
I agree totally. I am disappointed that Obama seemed to disappear after the election.
But at least Pelosi stepped forward.
And this week-end apparently she and REid are working on separate legisaltion that would maek the Senate bill more palatable to House liberals.
Pelosi and Reid seemt to understand that they must move.
Henry–
In a little while, I’ll e posting polling data that shows that the people who voted for Brown were Not sending a message about health reform.
The truth is that most voters don’t even known what is in the reform legislation.
And the folks who elected Brown in Mass (working-class voters) are moer concerned about jobs and the economy. These are their immediate problems.
Reform that they don’t particuarly understand, and that would happen 4 years from now, is not the pressing issue.
hoppycalif, Henry
Good to hear from you.
I agree totally. I am disappointed that Obama seemed to disappear after the election.
But at least Pelosi stepped forward.
And this week-end apparently she and REid are working on separate legisaltion that would maek the Senate bill more palatable to House liberals.
Pelosi and Reid seemt to understand that they must move.
Henry–
In a little while, I’ll e posting polling data that shows that the people who voted for Brown were Not sending a message about health reform.
The truth is that most voters don’t even known what is in the reform legislation.
And the folks who elected Brown in Mass (working-class voters) are moer concerned about jobs and the economy. These are their immediate problems.
Reform that they don’t particuarly understand, and that would happen 4 years from now, is not the pressing issue.