Today, I talked to Bob Blendon, who is a professor of health policy and political analysis at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, about Super Tuesday’s multi-state primary contests and what they might mean for healthcare reform.

Blendon agrees with the consensus on the Democratic race. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are running nose to nose, but Blendon points out, if you take a closer look at the polls, you find an unusual contradiction.  Not only are the voters split between the candidates; there are very split, within themselves.

“When you ask about the issues, Clinton wins on almost every point, including healthcare,” Blendon reports.  But when you ask about character, likability, leadership, ability to inspire—Obama is the clear favorite.

“Usually, people can’t live with that much incongruence,” Blendon adds. “Once they decide who they like, then they decide that person is the best on the issues. Normally, people don’t like incongruence within themselves.”

So if you’re foolish enough to try to predict tomorrow’s outcomes,
here’s the question you have to ask yourself: how will “undecided”
voters resolve this internal contradiction?   Ultimately, are they more
concerned about issues or character and likability?

As for issues, if voters are concerned about healthcare, “they probably
don’t perceive too much difference between Clinton and Obama,” says
Blendon, who is also a professor at Harvard’s School of Public Health.
“I think they believe that either Democrat will try to do something
big. Healthcare won’t become an issue until the general election.”

But in November’s general election, healthcare will be at the center of
the debate, Blendon declares.  “John McCain now appears to be the
front-runner among the Republicans, and if, in November, he turns out
to be the party’s candidate, he will not see providing health coverage
for everyone as a priority for his administration,” says Blendon.

“Nor will Republican Congressmen view universal coverage as something that their constituency wants.” As I noted in a post last week,  polls show that “the majority of Independents and Republicans are not convinced that health care is a “fundamental right.”

So an election that pitted either Clinton or Obama against McCain would
become, in part, a referendum on healthcare reform. Who would win?
“Again, it would be very close,” says Blendon. “We’re in a hostile
environment for Republicans, but McCain is stronger than his party. He
is seen as a tested character—strong on national defense, someone who
has defended his country…And he has an independent streak. He’s seen as
an ‘outsider/insider.’ He’ll run way ahead of his party.”